Olympia's climate action plan faces significant challenges, and climate officials admit current efforts are insufficient to meet the greenhouse gas reduction targets set for 2030 and 2040.
At a Planning Commission meeting on Monday, June 2, Dr. Pamela Braff, Climate Programs Director, told commissioners that key emissions metrics are not trending in the right direction.
The city's goals of reducing community-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 59% below 2015 levels by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2040 appear out of reach.
Transportation remains the largest contributor to local emissions, accounting for 34% of greenhouse gas emissions, followed by the building and energy sector at 27%, and commercial and residential at 22%.
Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) have not declined as needed. While VMT dropped during the COVID-19 pandemic, Braff said that is no longer the case.
"It is starting to rise again, and it did not go down as much as we would have needed it to go down to meet those VMT reduction goals," Braff said.
Climate Program Specialist Jaron Burke pointed to emissions inventory from 2021, which is the latest available.
"We're not seeing the progress we need," Burke explained. "Our VMT reduction strategies are ambitious but realistic, targeting a 20% reduction, yet current trends suggest we're moving in the opposite direction."
To understand how Olympia might still meet its climate targets, Braff said the city completed a carbon wedge analysis using a modeling tool from the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI). It helps estimate emissions reductions achievable under different strategies.
Braff said reducing VMT remains the most effective approach for transportation emissions, but also one of the hardest to implement.
"It is like one of the most famously inelastic behaviors that exists. It is hard to change the way that people get around town," Braff said.
She said long-term land use changes, such as denser infill development and more walkable neighborhoods, are important elements to shifting travel behavior.
"The best thing that we can do to change the way that people get around town is through infill development and dense development over time, to bring people closer towards the ... places where they want to be," Braff said.
"That doesn't happen overnight. It took us decades and decades and decades of development to create the car-centric development that we have now. Similarly, it'll take probably the same number of decades to undo that," she added.
In the short term, Braff stressed that Olympia will also need to rely heavily on electric vehicle adoption to meet emissions goals.
"If we could reduce VMT further and faster, the benefits would be really big — not just for the climate, but for so many different things. But we just don't think that's feasible to do right now without really significant and expensive intervention," she said.
The climate team also mentioned building energy use as a growing concern, particularly the need to improve energy efficiency and electrification in existing structures.
"Realistically, we need to be retrofitting approximately 10% of the building stock per year. That is a very high number where we know we are probably not there, even though we are not measuring it," Braff said.
The city's climate team is exploring solutions, including partnerships with Puget Sound Energy, supporting electric vehicle infrastructure, and promoting building energy efficiency. However, the team emphasized that more aggressive interventions will be necessary to close the gap.
Olympia is seeking public feedback on its climate element draft for the 2045 Comprehensive Plan, with a June 20 deadline for comments. Residents are encouraged to participate by providing input on potential strategies to accelerate climate action.
10 comments on this item Please log in to comment by clicking here
Southsoundguy
Climate change is a scam.
Tuesday, June 3 Report this
15mincities
How cognitively bankrupt does one need to be to buy into this "climate change" lunacy?!?! 15 minute city ghetto coming soon to Olympia, courtesy of the woketard Olympia officials!
Tuesday, June 3 Report this
KarenM
Investments in walking and cycling infrastructure will pay off in the long run. When people can walk or cycle for a short trip, traffic is reduced and emissions are avoided. Having a walkable neighborhood adds to the feeling of community. Walking is the number one form of exercise so safer walking conditions can improve our health. Olympia should be increasing the staff who work on these projects. We have project lists ready in the Transportation Master Plan. Let's get moving.
Tuesday, June 3 Report this
JulesJames
Sure wish advocates of this malarkey would at least split the interests and benefits of pedestrians away from the bicycle lobby. Not the same. Not even close. (But if they are split, biking numbers become embarrassingly low.)
Tuesday, June 3 Report this
Coug66
And our City planners have approved a 5 story apartment building at Henderson and I-5 (adjacent to Watershed park), housing 85 people. It is next to two hotels. Guess what? No City bus service.
Tuesday, June 3 Report this
BettyVerdammt
Climate Change is real, but Olympia's Climate Program is a scam.
Tuesday, June 3 Report this
jimLacey
"Our VMT reduction strategies are ambitious but realistic, targeting a 20% reduction, yet current trends suggest we're moving in the opposite direction."
Kinda sounds like the strategies are not realistic maybe?
Wednesday, June 4 Report this
mhjwilson
It might be helpful to open the urban transit market to other providers whether they are private owner/operators, or corporations. There are many cities worldwide that have more open markets and do so successfully at lower cost and with good, if not better services.
Wednesday, June 4 Report this
HappyOlympian
Olympia city government a bloated entity and dramatic waste of tax dollars.
Wednesday, June 4 Report this
sonshi
I thought we were paying a state gas tax for this already
Wednesday, June 4 Report this